Many election predictors did not expect Trump’s win on the morning after election day, much rather the night itself when certain news sources called the race. The win comes with a large Senate majority for the Republicans, and a considerable lead for the House of Representatives. Trump is currently at 312 electoral votes, as opposed to Harris’s 226. Trump won all 7 of the key battleground states, states crucial to winning the Electoral college, and thus the presidency. Another worthy note is that Trump is dominating the popular vote, with 50.2%, while Harris only has 48.1%. This is an uncommon feat as Democrats usually win the popular vote thanks to states with large cities that tend to be blue landslides. So this makes many wonder, what caused the greatness of Trump’s win, as well as the Red wave for the Senate and House of Representatives?
One of the explanations could reside within the mentality of voters. Voters want a fresh, new start from the current administration, the Biden-Harris administration that has been in control for the past 4 years. With inflation reaching a high point of 9.1% under Biden and Harris, 10.1 million illegal immigrants crossing since 2021, and gas prices reaching highest prices in decades, many voters wanted change. For the better.
When Joe Biden decided to drop out of the race on July 21st, 2024, it was not a surprise to many. The decision to drop out of the race has been internally discussed with many house representatives, leaders, and other politicians, greatly after Biden’s debate with Trump which was criticized by many sources as “clearly lost”. After Joe Biden announced that he would drop out of the race, with there being less than 100 days to the election to be, a new candidate had to be chosen to run against Trump, who defeated many notable Republicans, including former U.S Ambassador Nikki Haley during the primary election. Nikki Haley rapidly got supporters on her side who did not want to side with either Trump or the Democrats, and thus she won more moderate Republicans in Vermont and District of Columbia. Biden’s pledged delegates were released during his resignation, and eventually picked Kamala Harris who got more than half of the 300 necessary signatures.
Before Biden resigned, his average polling compared to Trump was -3%. When Harris announced her race for the White House she started to lead him in just a few days, carrying that momentum through her debate with Donald Trump which was considered to be won by Harris. She took this momentum nationally with an average of +3% nationally until a key date: October 1st, 2024. What occurred that day was the vice-presidential debate, this one between Democrat, Governor of Minnesota Tim Walz, and JD Vance, a Republican and Senator from Ohio, now currently U.S Vice President- Elect. Tim Walz was often seen stuttering throughout the debate, not able to get his point across throughout the debate. J.D Vance was seen by many critics, including the debate moderators as more fit, more flexible, more knowledgeable, and having a concrete plan. But this was not the only part of the reason why Kamala Harris’s advantage started to decrease.
Many viewers across the nation listened to one of the key issues of the race, immigration. JD Vance’s stance was much clearer on it, and much more effective, and added a note of clarity and depth to Donald Trump’s stance, perhaps even improving on it. He took a strong, effective claim on illegal immigration, with specifics on law enforcement deployment and government spending, without the rhetoric and inaccurate claims by Donald Trump, while Tim Walz had a unclear path in mind, which exposed many voting for Harris who were concerned about immigration policies.
After the debate, presidential pulls got more heated and closer for Trump, slowly entering the 1%-2% lead for Harris only, influenced by the debate, the assassination attempt on Trump’s life, and, importantly, Trump’s constant rallies and speeches. As Harris tried to isolate herself from the greatly unpopular President, Joe Biden, Trump spent time portraying a dark, negative side to the administration that was trying to get reelected across many issues, from the crippling economy, illegal immigrant crisis, free speech loss, and the risk of portraying Christianity as dark.
The red wave in the U.S House and Senate also has a similar explanation. As voters see the same party as Donald J. Trump, or the other way around, they infer that they will be the best to fix our current nation’s issues, and they vote for the Republicans too, this time for House and Senate.
In the end, Donald Trump’s win and the Red Wave in both the U.S Senate and U.S House, as well as in many state positions throughout the nation signify voter’s want for change from the current administration. With key issues such as economy and immigration on their mind, and knowledge of what is most important to them, the United States spoke: Republican leadership for the next 2 years for the Senate and House of Representatives, and a Republican leader as President for the next 4 years. Will positive change come? Time will tell.
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